TVA Integrated Resource Plan

It shapes how TVA will provide low-cost, reliable and clean electricity; support environmental stewardship; and foster economic development in the Tennessee Valley for the next 20 years.

The plan is a crucial element for TVA’s success in a constantly changing business and regulatory environment, and it will better equip TVA to meet many of the challenges facing the electric utility industry in the coming years to benefit the Valley.

Study Results

During the IRP process, TVA — with significant input from stakeholders and the public — considered a wide range of future scenarios, various business strategies and a diverse mix of power-generation resources to build on TVA’s existing asset portfolio. IRP study results show:

• There is a need for new capacity in all scenarios to replace expiring or retiring capacity.
• Solar expansion plays a substantial role in all futures.
• Gas, storage and demand response additions provide reliability and/or flexibility.
• No baseload resources (designed to operate around the clock) are added, highlighting the need for operational flexibility in the resource portfolio.
• Additional coal retirements occur in certain futures.
• Energy efficiency (EE) levels depend on market depth and cost-competitiveness. • Wind could play a role if it becomes cost-competitive.
• In all cases, TVA will continue to provide for economic growth in the Tennessee Valley.

Observations

TVA has observed that the scenario, or future environment, it finds itself operating in will have more impact on overall results than the strategy or strategies it implements. TVA also recognizes that all strategies have positive aspects but also have unique tradeoffs to consider.

If TVA needs to shift its resource mix, that need will be driven by these key variables: changing market conditions, more stringent regulations and technology advancements. Recognizing that a variety of future scenarios are possible and each strategy has positive aspects, all IRP results are included in the IRP Recommendation to allow TVA decision-makers flexibility to respond as the future evolves.

• Coal

  Continue with announced plans to retire Paradise in 2020 and Bull Run in 2023. Evaluate retirements of up to 2,200 MW of additional coal capacity if cost-effective.

• Hydro

  All portfolios reflect continued investment in the hydro fleet to maintain capacity. Consider additional hydro capacity where feasible.

• Energy Efficiency

  Achieve savings of up to 1,800 MW by 2028 and up to 2,200 MW by 2038. Work with our local power company partners to expand programs for low-income residents and refine program designs and delivery mechanisms with the goal of lowering total cost.

• Demand Response

  Add up to 500 MW of demand response by 2038 depending on availability and cost of the resource.

• Nuclear

  Pursue option for second license renewal of Browns Ferry for an additional 20 years. Continue to evaluate emerging nuclear technologies, including small modular reactors, (SMR) as part of technology innovation efforts.

• Wind

  Existing wind contracts expire in the early 2030s. Consider the addition of up to 1,800 MW of wind by 2028 and up to 4,200 MW by 2038 if cost-effective.

• Storage

  Add up to 2,400 MW of storage by 2028 and up to 5,300 MW by 2038. Additions may be a combination of utility and distributed scale. The trajectory and timing of additions will be highly dependent on the evolution of storage technologies.

• Gas Combustion Turbine

  Evaluate retirements of up to 2,000 MW of existing combustion turbines if cost-effective. Add up to 5,200 MW of combustion turbines by 2028 and up to 8,600 MW by 2038 if a high level of load growth materializes. Future CT needs are driven by demand for electricity, solar penetration, and evolution of other peaking technologies.

• Gas Combined Cycle

  Add between 800 and 5,700 MW of combined cycle by 2028 and up to 9,800 MW by 2038 if a high level of load growth materializes. Future CC needs are driven by demand for electricity and gas prices, as well as by solar penetration that tends to drive CT instead of CC additions.

• Solar

  Add between 1,500 and 8,000 MW of solar by 2028 and up to 14,000 MW by 2038 if a high level of load growth materializes. Additions may be a combination of utility and distributed scale. Future solar needs are driven by pricing, customer demand, and demand for electricity.

With the implementation of the IRP Recommendation will come certain challenges. For example, the IRP Recommendation includes significant renewables expansion, which means it will become increasingly important to know the location of renewable resources, both utility and distributed scale, and how weather impacts solar generation. Early experience with battery storage on the system would provide additional insight to how the various storage-use cases might be employed to provide economic benefit and system flexibility, especially with increasing penetration of renewables.

TVA will need to partner with local power companies and other stakeholders in the region to better understand the potential for distributed resources in the Valley and their locational value to inform resource decisions. Finally, the IRP Recommendation also includes more conventional resources, primarily gas-fired, and TVA will need to consider the implementation challenges in the areas of siting and permitting, both for the units themselves and associated transmission lines and gas pipelines.

In the process of developing the IRP, stakeholders raised a number of policy-related issues that are outside the scope of the IRP itself but will need to be considered as TVA moves toward implementation of recommendations from the IRP study. These considerations include continued evolution of programs that provide flexibility for customer-owned generation, evolution of federal/state energy and environmental policies, advancements in customer expectations and requirements for clean energy, and enhancing low-income equity and energy/environmental justice.

Near-Term Actions

The scenarios and strategies evaluated in the IRP provide insights to how TVA’s resource portfolio may need to evolve as the future becomes clearer. The results indicate there are near-term actions that would provide benefit across multiple futures. The actions include:

Key Signposts

As the future unfolds, TVA will monitor key signposts that will guide decisions in the longer term. The signposts relate to key variables that could have a significant influence on the future generation portfolio. These key signposts are shown to the right (or below on a mobile device).

TVA will closely monitor these key drivers related to changing market conditions, more stringent regulations, and technology advancements to inform appropriate actions within the recommended ranges and appropriate timing for initiating the next IRP.

Purpose and Need

The 2019 IRP is a comprehensive study that provides direction on how TVA can best deliver clean, reliable and affordable energy in the Valley over the next 20 years.

• Why was the irp developed now?

  The IRP was developed because the utility marketplace is changing very rapidly, and long-range planning is necessary to guide TVA’s decisions about power generation.

• What does the irp do?

  The IRP enhances TVA’s ability to create a flexible power-generation system that can respond to increasing amounts of renewable energy sources and distributed energy resources. The IRP also informs TVA’s next Long-Range Financial Plan.
  
  The final IRP examines how TVA can meet future demand for power. As a high-level, long-range plan, the final IRP serves as a compass that provides broad direction, rather than as a GPS that provides a specific route.

• What was considered in the irp?

  In developing the IRP, TVA specialists — with significant input from stakeholders and the public — considered a wide range of future scenarios, various business strategies and a diverse mix of power generation resources, including coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydro, solar and other renewables, along with energy efficiency and distributed energy resources.

• Why was an environmental impact statement prepared?

  Per the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), TVA also prepared a draft and final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) to analyze the 2019 IRP’s potential impacts on the environment, economy and population in the Tennessee Valley. TVA accepted public comments on this draft (more details in “Stakeholder and Public Involvement” section below), and then published a final IRP and EIS that addressed those public comments.

• Why is flexibility important?

  The IRP team focused on flexibility because it is important for TVA to plan for a diverse power-generation system that is well-positioned to meet future demand; has the capacity to incorporate renewable energy sources and distributed energy resources, along with more traditional resources; and has the capability to respond in a variety of circumstances well into the future.

• What is distributed energy?

  Distributed energy resources are small-scale resources and services that can be used by individuals or that can add power to the grid.